Losing my hair and losing my mind in Western New York

Monday, November 06, 2006

Pre-election Predictions

Since I have yet again managed to go several weeks without posting, I thought it would be appropriate to show up and comment on the big news item of the week. Thusly I will now make my predictions for the Mid-term elections.

Now, I know that some are a tad pessimistic about the GOP's chances on Tuesday, but I prefer to take a more optimistic tone. I realize that there is alot of history going against the GOP this time around. The party in power almost always loses seats in a mid-term, and with as well as the Dems have been polling up until recently, one might think that the GOP has no chance. However, as some have pointed out, the polls have traditionally always been skewed towards Democrats, and phone polls in particular suffer from an undersampling of Republican and Conservative opinion.

With those facts in mind, here is my mid-term general election prediction:

House: Dems take a small handful seats, 5 at the most, and the GOP holds onto it's lead.

Senate: Dems take no seats, maybe 1, and the GOP holds it's lead.

Now, some would say that I have no reason to be that optimistic. I say that I have every reason to feel that way. Look at the polls: Knowing that they are ALWAYS skewed towards Democrats to the tune of 5 to 10 points, look at how many races show the Dem candidate more than 10 points in the lead. In the House it's 5 at the most and maybe 1, if that, in the Senate.

I know that handicapping an election may seem a strange way to make a prediction, but with the egregiously poor record the pollsters have, I think it's safe to award the GOP a free 5 to 10 points on any given poll. Once you do that, the race begins to take on an entirely different flavor. Indeed it begins to look much like the '94 elections.

Now, I'm not expecting a surreal event with the Dems losing seats and gaining nothing. While I would certainly cheer that should it happen, I think it highly unlikely. History has a way of repeating itself, and history is against us this time around.

However, I am one who believes in Manifest Destiny, that we make our own future, and history is not bound to repeat, just likely to. To that end I think that the GOP base is being jolted out of it's slumber by the nightmare of a potential Dem sweep come Tuesday. I believe that Republicans and Conservatives will flock to the polls, galvanized by the desire to protect all that we have gained since the GOP took control. With that energy harnessed into votes, the GOP will hold it's lead.

Now if we could just get some good strong conservatives to replace some of the RINOs, we'd really be doing great.


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